MARA

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
Country: USIndustry: Financial - Capital Markets
$10.22|$-0.22 (-2.11%)
MC: $3.87B

The company faces a severe dilution risk driven by a short cash runway of approximately 5 months, forcing reliance on capital raises. It is actively diluting shareholders via a large $2.0B ATM program and has a significant overhang from billions in convertible debt.

Float & OS: 375,368,368 / 378,184,353
Est. Runway: ~5 months

Risk Metrics

Overall Risk
SEVERE
Offering Ability
HIGH
Cash Need
SEVERE
Float Risk
HIGH

Dilution Data

Warrants

  • As of September 30, 2025, there are 324,375 common stock warrants outstanding with a weighted average exercise price of $25.00.
  • These warrants are expected to expire in approximately 0.3 years and represent potential future dilution if exercised.

Convertible Notes

  • For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, convertible notes represented 91,282,701 weighted average dilutive shares.
  • August 2032 Notes: $1.025 billion principal, convertible at a rate equivalent to ~$20.26 per share. The company entered into capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution from this series.
  • Other Outstanding Notes: Includes June 2031 ($925.0M), March 2030 ($1.0B), September 2031 ($300.0M), and December 2026 ($48.1M) series.
  • The company recently repurchased $19.4 million of its December 2026 notes, slightly reducing dilution from that series.

ATMs

  • On March 28, 2025, the company initiated a new at-the-market (ATM) program allowing for the sale of up to $2.0 billion of common stock.
  • In the first nine months of 2025, the company sold a total of 35,339,308 shares for an aggregate of $571.9 million under its 2025 and now-concluded 2024 ATM programs.
  • As of September 30, 2025, approximately $1.5 billion in common stock remains available for sale under the active 2025 ATM program, representing significant potential future dilution.

Additional Notes

  • Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): 8,548,456 nonvested service-based RSUs were outstanding as of September 30, 2025.
  • Performance-based RSUs (PSUs): 4,820,483 nonvested PSUs were outstanding as of September 30, 2025.
  • In total, approximately 13.4 million shares are reserved for issuance under outstanding RSU and PSU awards, representing future dilution from stock-based compensation.